American Association SUNDAY Insider: A looming lockout and its impact on AAPB

 Kevin Luckow

(non member of IBWAA)

I was going to take the day off today. With Division Finals set to begin on Monday there was plenty to talk about. My attempt at picking the winners in Round One yielded a 2-2 record. So I will not make a stab at picking this round to spare myself the humiliation and ire of the readers. The most that I will say is that I will not be a bit surprised if the lower seeds (Fargo-Moorhead, Kane County) find a way to win their series.

As I alluded to, I was going to take today off but then I was watching the St. Paul vs. Syracuse AAA game. A listening sent in a question to the Saints broadcasters asking about if the Saints would play next year if there is a MLB lockout underway. The answer being that there will be baseball played at all levels of Minor League Baseball. BUT, any player on a 40 man roster will be allowed to play in MiLB. 



That creates a dilemma. Major League teams carry 26 players on their active roster. So that leaves 14 players that would normally be in the minor leagues that will not be able to play. Granted, I could see teams releasing players or having players retire that they will not replace on the forty man roster. So, let's say for argument sake, it becomes 10 players per team looking for somewhere to play, 300 players in all.

In AA and AAA rosters consist of 28 players. Single A has a roster limit of 30 players on both levels. I do not see the rosters being pared down at all. 

Scenario #1

What we could see is an AAPB player shortage much like what we saw in 2021 coming off the "pandemic". This caused any player showing any potential in AAPB getting signed by MLB organizations. If I'm Joshua Mears, darn right I'm going to take a AAA deal after this season. It could be a chance for someone that hasn't had a taste of affiliated baseball to get a taste and a look like a Josh Rehwaldt or Henry George. There would be no qualms for these players to seize the opportunity. Since it's a lockout, they would not be crossing any picket lines and risking future MLBPA status. 

That though creates a trickle down effect. Those guys that are getting a look would need to be replaced on their AAPB teams. We have seen how pitching was at a premium this season. Now take away the limited great arms the AAPB has and it will be another season when double digit run totals don't even get a second look. It would be a boon for Pioneer League and dare I say Pecos League players hoping to get in the door with an AAPB team. 

Scenario #2

We will call this one the Tucupita Marcano theory. How will Major League 40 man roster players be viewed in lockout terms when it comes to playing in AAPB. Marcano has been banned for life by MLB but nary a headline was made when he joined Fargo-Moorhead. No way would he have been allowed to play for an MiLB team. So be that as it may, since AAPB is just a "partner" league, will 40 man roster players be permitted to play on AAPB teams? Would agents advise their clients to play in AAPB and risk injury or promote them to do so in order to be sharp when the lockout ends. If they choose to play, it will lead to a feeding frenzy of teams trying to compete with Atlantic League and National Association for out of work 40 man roster players, with no guarantees as to how long they will be around. 

Scenario #3

The owners end the lockout by mid May and I have just rambled on about a nothing happening scenario.

But a lockout will affect AAPB team's ability to recruit guys to come in for 2027. If you're a player and you got released by an organization at the end of this season, do you commit to a partner league team knowing that there is a possibility that you're going to get a call from an MiLB team looking to fill their rosters due to 40 man roster minor league spots needing to be filled. 

I realized I never did you give you Power Rankings heathens a final end of regular season rankings list. So here's one for ya. 

1. Kansas City Monarchs 66

2. Milwaukee Milkmen 63

3. Lake Country DockHounds 61

4. Kane County Cougars 59 

5. Winnipeg Goldeyes 59

6. Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks 57

7.  Sioux Falls Canaries 56

8. Cleburne Railroaders 55

9. Sioux City Explorers 55

10. Lincoln Saltdogs 48

11. Gary SouthShore RailCats 47

12. Chicago Dogs 33

The Rankings had no difference from the final league standings which shows the parity in the league in that nobody ended the season on a considerable hot streak that may have bumped them up in the Rankings. 











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